“More data must be collected and more geophysical and geochemical parameters must be tested”

“必须收集更多的数据，同时对更多的地球物理学的和地球化学的指标进行试验。”

Francesco Biagi pointed out30:

从1994年起已从事25年地震前兆和地震预测现场实践研究的意大利研究者Francesco Biagi指出30∶ 

“On the basis of 25 years of field research I believe that a satisfactory solution to this problem is still lacking. More data must be collected and more geophysical and geochemical parameters must be tested. Unfortunately, progress in this research area is connected with the occurrence of earthquakes. Many earthquakes (considered as sources of precursors) are necessary for defining in a meaningful way the relationship linking earthquakes and precursors in a seismogenetic area, but the occurrence of earthquakes cannot be planned. As a result a deadline for the definition of the problem cannot be foreseen and might be tens of years in the future.” 

“在25年现场研究的基础上，我相信对这个问题我们仍然缺乏一个令人满意的解决方案。必需收集更多的数据，同时必须对更多的地球物理方面的和地球化学方面指标〔信息〕进行试验。遗憾的是，该研究领域进展与地震的发生有关。许多地震〔被认为是前兆的来源〕，对于以一种有意义的方式明确一个地震活动区域中地震与前兆之间的联系是必要的。但是，地震的发生又不能事先计划。结果，无法预计明确这个问题的期限，有可能为今后数十年。

“Improve the quality of both the data collected ... and the work done with it.”

“改进收集的数据的质量……以及处理这些数据的工作的质量。”

Andrew Michael pointed out96:

Andrew Michael指出96∶ 

“Certainly, earthquake prediction is extremely difficult, but it is possible that we will be able to improve our ability to make low-probability, short-term forecasts and these may be much better for society than the high probability ones that are most likely impossible. The trick will be to improve the quality of both the data collected, particularly in the near-source region, and the work done with it.” 

“当然，地震预测确实极为困难，但我们应可能改进我们做出低概率预测的能力，而且，与看起来不大可能的高概率预测相比，低概率的预测可能对社会更有用。其中的诀窍是既改进数据收集的质量，特别在近震源地区，同时改进使用这些数据的工作。”

“Should discover if certain features of precursors in a seismogenetic area are totally random or whether there are significant recurrences”

“应当发现某个地震活动区域里前兆的某些特点是完全随意的，还是有显著的重复性”

Francesco Biagi pointed out30:

Francesco Biagi指出30∶ 

“The main problem in using precursors in earthquake prediction is to discover whether in a seismogenetic area these features are totally random or whether there are significant recurrences. In the first case the prediction of earthquakes is a null hypothesis; in the second case the prediction of some earthquakes might be possible.” 

“在地震预测中使用前兆的主要问题，是发现在某个地震活动区里这些特点是完全随意的呢，还是有显著的重复性。在头一种情况下，地震的预测是一个无意义的假定；在后一种情况下对某些地震进行预测可能是可能的。”

“A generalized SOC model for the crust”

“对地壳的一般化SOC〔‘自组成临界性’〕”

Stating this, Pascal Bernard pointed out58:

在谈到这一点时，Pascal Bernard指出58∶ 

“To resolve this, one should consider SOC models applied to the whole set of instabilities in the crust (fluid, aseismic and seismic), not only to the seismic ones. In this more global framework, it would be surprising if the characteristic parameters of the slow instabilities that span a large range of scales (duration, dimension and amplitude) did not obey a power-law distribution, just as earthquakes do.” 

“为了解决这个问题，人们应考虑将SOC〔‘自组成临界性’〕应用于地壳的一整套不稳定因素〔流体、aseismic和地震性〕，而不仅仅对于地震性的外壳。在这种更加全球化的框架下，如果跨越很大标度〔期间、尺寸大小和放大倍数〕的缓慢的不稳定性因素的特性指标不遵循动力法则分布，象地震进行的那样，那才令人奇怪呢。”

“We need global data, especially on earthquakes, active faults and geodetic deformation” and “we need a methodical approach and a better strategy for testing hypotheses”.

“我们需要全球化的数据，特别对于地震、活动性断层和测地学变形”，以及“我们需要一种系统的方法和试验假说的更好的战略”。

David D. Jackson pointed out13:

David D. Jackson指出13∶ 

“Earthquake hazard estimation is the most effective way for Earth scientists to reduce earthquake losses. Many outstanding scientific questions need answers: the most important is how to determine the magnitude distribution for large earthquakes, which is needed to estimate their frequencies. Time-dependent hazard is worth pursuing, but prospective tests are needed to identify the models that work. These tests should cover large areas of the globe, so that we need not wait too long for earthquakes. For global tests we need global data, especially on earthquakes, active faults and geodetic deformation.” 

“地震危险估计是地球科学家减少地震损失的最有效的方法。许多尚未解决的科学问题需要答案∶最重要的是如何确定大地震的震级分布，需要这以便预计它们的频率。依赖于时间的危险分析是值得推进的，但是需要进行预期试验以便识别哪些数学模型起作用。这些试验应当覆盖地球很大的地区，以便我们不需为地震等待太长的时间。对于全球化的试验，我们需要全球化的数据，特别对于地震、活动性断层和测地学变形。” 

“Basic earthquake science is a sound investment for many reasons. Progress will lead to advancements in understanding tectonics, Earth history, materials and complexity, to name just a few. Results will also benefit hazard estimation. Wholesale measurements of phenomena such as electric fields with no clear relationship to earthquakes will not help.” 

“基本地震科学由于许多理由是一种合理的投资。这方面的进展将导致对许多方面理解的进展，对板块、地球史、材料及其复杂性，这仅是几例。这方面的结果还将有益于危险性预计。对与地震没有清楚关联的某些现象的大规模测量是没有帮助的。” 

“For real progress we need a methodical approach and a better strategy for testing hypotheses. We have good reason to expect wonderful discoveries, but not deterministic prediction.” 

“对于真正的进展，我们需要一种系统的方法以及试验假说的更好的战略。我们有很好的理想来期望令人惊奇的发现，但不是确定性预测。”

Further understandings is required from the “SOC hypothesis”

从“SOC〔‘自组成临界性’〕假说”要求更好的理解

Didier Sornette pointed out14:

Didier Sornette指出14∶ 

“Two important consequences can be drawn from the SOC hypothesis.” 

“从SOC假说可以引出两项重要的后果。” 

“First, at any time, a (small) fraction of the crust is close to the rupture instability. Together with the localization of seismicity on faults, this leads to the conclusion that a fraction of the crust is susceptible to rupture, while presently being quiescient. The quantitative determination of the susceptible fraction is dependent on the specificity of the model and cannot thus be ascertained with precision for the crust. What is important however in that the susceptible part of the crust can be activated with relatively small perturbations or by modification of the overall driving conditions. This remark leads to a natural interpretation of triggered9 and induced seismicity by human activity in the SOC framework10 .” 

“首先，在任何时间，地壳的一个〔小〕部分临近破裂非稳定状态。与断层的局部地震活动性一起考虑，可以得出如下结论∶地壳的一部分，在目前处于静止状态条件，它实际处于一种易受影响导致破裂的敏感状态。决定这样的部分是否处于这种易受影响的部分的量化分析，取决于其数学模型的特征，因而对于地壳无法进行准确的确定。然而，对于地壳这样的易受影响的部分来说，重要的是它可以由对驱动状态的相当小的动摇或改变来触发。这样的看法导致对地震触发105，以及地震活动性在SOC的框架下亦可由人类活动诱发106的形成自然的解释。 

“The second important but often ignored point is that, in the SOC picture, the crust is NOT almost everywhere on the verge of rupture and is not maintaining itself perpetually near the critical point. For instance, numerical simulations show that in discrete models made of interacting blocks carrying a continuous scalar stress variable, the average stress is about two thirds of the stress threshold for rupture. In these models, the crust is, on average, far from rupture. However, it exhibits strong fluctuations such that a subset of space is very close to rupture at any time.” 

“第二项重要的，但是往往被人忽视的要点是，在SOC的描述下，地壳并非各处频临破裂，并且它不总是保持处于接近于临界点。例如，数字化模拟显示，由相互作用的承载着连续梯度变化应力的地块构成的离散模型中，平均应力大约为导致破裂应力极限的三分之二。在这样的模型中，地壳，在平均情况下，离破裂状态差很远。然而，它也显示强烈的波动，使某个空间子集在任何时间非常接近于破裂。” 

“The average is thus a poor representation of the large variability of the stress amplitudes in the crust. This leads to the prediction that not all perturbations will lead to triggered or induced seismicity and that some regions will be very stable. SOC models suggest that local stress measurements may not be representative of the global organization.” 

“平均的情况则只能较差的反映地壳中应力振幅非常大不同的状况。这导致这样的预测，并非所有的混乱都导致触发或促使地震活动，有一些区域是非常稳定的。SOC模型建议局部地区的应力测量数据可能并非代表全球的情况。”

Further research is required on “Intermittent criticality”, “triggers, stress shadows and implications for seismic hazard”.

需要对“间歇的危险状态”、“触发因子、应力阴影以及地震活动风险的牵连因素”进行进一步的研究。

David Bowman & Charles Sammis pointed out6:

David Bowman & Charles Sammis指出6∶ 

“In one of the first studies on this subject7 it was found that the 1906 San Francisco earthquake produced a 'shadow' in the static stress field that seemed to inhibit earthquakes for many years after the M = 7.9 event. After this work, several other studies observed stress shadows after numerous events including the 1857 Fort Tejon8 ,9 and 1952 Kern County8108 earthquakes. An excellent review of these and other observations of stress shadows after large earthquakes can be found in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research special issue on stress triggers, stress shadows and implications for seismic hazard10 .” 

“在该题目的头一项研究中107发现1906年的旧金山地震在静态应力场中造成了一个‘明影’，它看来在那次M = 7.9地震后许多年起到抑制地震的作用。这次研究之后，许多次其它的研究在许多次地震后观察到这种应力阴影，包括1857的Fort Tejon地震108 109和1952年的Kern County地震167后。在最近一期Journal of Geophysical Research上对应力触发因素、应力阴影以及地震活动风险的其它牵连因素的专刊中有对这些以及其它几次观察的极好的评论110。” 

“In an earlier comment during this debate, Christopher Scholz discussed these stress shadows in the framework of self-organized criticality (Fig. 1B in his comment), and mentioned that this concept is equivalent to the 'seismic gap' hypothesis. However, it should be noted that recent years have seen the proliferation of models11-17 that describe how the system emerges from these stress shadows. The hypothesis for this viewpoint (which has come to be known as intermittent criticality) is that a large regional earthquake is the end result of a process in which the stress field becomes correlated over increasingly long scale-lengths (that is, the system approaches a critical state). The scale over which the stress field is correlated sets the size of the largest earthquake that can be expected at that time. The largest event possible in a given fault network cannot occur until regional criticality has been achieved. This large event then reduces the correlation length, moving the system away from the critical state on its associated network, creating a period of relative quiescence, after which the process repeats by rebuilding correlation lengths towards criticality and the next large event.” 

“这场辩论中前边的一段评论中，Christopher Scholz在‘自组成危险状态’的框架下对这些应力阴影进行了讨论〔参看他的看法中Fig. 1B〕，并且提到这个概念等同于‘地震活动缺口’假说。然而，应当指出，最近几年可以看到这些模型进行增值111 112 113 115 116 117，其中描述这样的系统如何中这些应力阴影中形成。这种观点的假说〔人们后来称之为‘间歇危险状态’〕为∶一个大区域的地震是应力场在不断增长数值范围的长度上变得有相互关系的过程的最终结果〔即，系统趋近于临界状态〕。应力场形成有相互关系的标度则确定那时能够期望的最大地震。对于一个指定的断层网来说可能发生的最大地震在地区性危险状态实现前不可能发生。这样一次大地震的发生将减少形成相互关系的长度，使系统在其相关的网上上离开危险状态，造成一段期间的相对安静，而后该过程重复进行∶有相互关系的长度重新再次增长趋近于危险状态直至发生下一次大的地震。” 

“The differences between these models for regional seismicity have important consequences for efforts to quantify the seismic hazard in a particular region. Self-organized criticality has been used as a justification for the claim that earthquakes are inherently unpredictable22. Models of intermittent criticality, in contrast, do not preclude the possibility of discovering reliable precursors of impending great earthquakes. Indeed, several modern models use this concept to predict observable changes in regional seismicity patterns before large earthquakes16-1839 117 . It can be argued that models of intermittent criticality not only hold the promise of providing additional criteria for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting methods but also might provide a theoretical basis for such approaches.” 

“这些模型对于地区性地震活动性的差别，对于量化一个特定区域的地震活动风险的努力产生重要的后果。‘自组成危险状态’被用来作为地震是固有无法预测的主要理由2。间歇性危险状态的模型，形成对照，它们并不排除对临近的大地震发生可靠前兆的可能性。当然，有几项现代的模型采用这种概念在大地震发生前预测地区性地震活动图案中可以观察到的变化39 117 118。可以争论，间歇性危险状态的模型不仅有可能对中期地震预测方法提供进一步的标准，而且有可能对这种方法提供一个理论性的基础。” 

“Although models of intermittent criticality might promise improved methods for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, we must be careful not to overstate their claims.” 

“尽管间歇性危险状态模型有可能对中期地震预测提供改进的方法，我们必须注意不要夸大其声称的作用。”

Didier Sornette also pointed out14:

Didier Sornette也指出14∶ 

“Criticality and predictability” 

“危险状态与可预测性” 

“In the present context, criticality and self-organized criticality, used in the sense of statistical physics, refer to two very different concepts, which leads to a lot of confusions, as seen in this debate.” 

“在目前的上下文中，危险状态和‘自组成危险状态’，在静态物理意义中，指的是下种非常不同的概念，导致许多混淆，如同在这场辩论中所看到的那样。” 

“First, SOC is self-organized (thus there is no apparent 'tuning', see however ref. 11 ) while criticality is not.” 

“首先，SOC是自组织的〔因而没有任何显然的外部的‘调谐’，参见文献119〕，而危险状态则不是。” 

“Second, the hallmarks of criticality are the existence of specific precursory patterns (increasing 'susceptibility' and correlation length) in space and time.” 

“第二，危险状态的特点是在空间和时间上存在着特殊的前兆性图案〔‘易受影响性’和有相互关系的长度的增长〕。” 

“The idea that a large earthquake could be a critical phenomenon has been put forward by different groups, starting almost two decades ago12-14 . Attempts to link earthquakes and critical phenomena find support in the demonstration that rupture in heterogeneous media is a critical phenomenon. Also indicative is the often reported observation of increased intermediate magnitude seismicity before large events (see Bowman and Samis's contribution to this debate and references therein).” 

“关于一次大的地震可能是一个临界现象的想法是由不同组研究者从大约二十年前开始提出来的120 121 122。尝试将地震和临界现象联系在一起，在破裂在不同种类介质中是一个临界现象的演示中找到依据。大地震前经常报告观察到中等震级地震活动性的增加〔参看Bowman and Samis对这场辩论提交的论文及有关文献〕也预示这种情况。 

“Criticality carries with it the concepts of coarse-graining and universality, and suggests a robustness of its signatures when observed at sufficiently large scale. This is in contrast with the conclusion that one needs a detailed knowledge of the huge complexity of the geology and mechanics of fault systems (fault geometry, strength variations in the fault, zone material, rheological properties, state of stress, etc) to perform a prediction (see Crampin's contribution to this debate).” 

“与危险状态连带在一起的是粗晶粒和多方面性的概念，从而建议在充分大的范围内进行观察时其信号有所加强。这与对断层系统巨大复杂的地质和机制〔断层几何学、断层中强度变化、区域材料、物流变学性质、应力状态，等〕需要有详尽的知识才能从事预测的结论形成对照〔参看Crampin对这场辩论提交的论文〕。”

“Criticality and SOC can coexist”

“危险状态和SOC〔‘自组成危险状态’〕可以并存”

Didier Sornette further pointed out14:

Didier Sornette进一步指出14∶ 

“If rupture of a laboratory sample is the well-defined conclusion of the loading history, the same cannot be said for the crust where 'there is life' after large earthquakes. An illustration of the coexistence of criticality and of SOC is found in a simple sandpile model of earthquakes on a hierarchical fault structure15115. Here, the important ingredient is to take into account both the nonlinear dynamics and the complex geometry.” 

“如果实验室样品的破裂是负载历史的定义明确的结论，对大地震后仍有活动的地壳的破裂不能也这样说。在分层断层结构上地震的一个简单的沙堆模型中可以说明‘危险状态’与SOC共存115。



“While the system self-organizes at large time scales according to the expected statistical characteristics, such a the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude frequency, most of the large earthquakes have precursors occuring over time scales of decades and over distances of hundreds of kilometers. Within the critical view point, these intermediate earthquakes are both 'witnesses' and 'actors' of the building-up of correlations. These precursors produce an energy release, which when measured as a time-to-failure process, is quite consistent with an accelerating power law behaviour. In addition, the statistical average (over many large earthquakes) of the correlation length, measured as the maximum size of the precursors, also increases as a power law of the time to the large earthquake.” 

“在系统按大的时间标度依照预期的统计学特征，如对于地震量级频率的 Gutenberg-Richter定律‘自组织’时，大部分大地震均有跨越十年为单位的时间标度和距离跨越数百公里的前兆。在‘危险状态’观点中，这些中间的地震既是逐渐形成相互关系的‘证据’，又是逐渐形成相互关系的‘参与因素’。这些前兆产生一种能量释放，在将其作为‘在时间上失效’的过程进行测量时，它与一种加速的动力法则相当一致。此外，有相互关系的长度的统计学平均值〔跨越许多次大地震〕，测量作为前兆的最大规模，也对于大地震作为时间的动力法则而增加。” 

“From the point of view of self-organized criticality, this is surprising news: large earthquakes do not lose their 'identity'. In this model15115, a large earthquake is different from a small one, a very different story than told by common SOC wisdom in which 'any precursor state of a large event is essentially identical to a precursor state of a small event and earthquake does not know how large it will become', as stated by Scholz and Bak in this debate.” 

“从‘自组成危险状态’的观点，这是惊人的消息∶大地震不丧失其‘特征’。在这种模型中115，一次大地震与小的有区别，这与通常的SOC的智慧诉说的故事非常不同，即‘大地震的任何前兆状态与一个小地震的前兆状态在实质上相同，而且小的地震不知道它将变得多大’，如Scholz和Bak在辩论中声称的那样。” 

“The difference comes from the absence of geometry in standard SOC models. Reintroducing geometry is essential. In models with hierarchical fault structures15115, we find a degree of predictability of large events. Most of the large earthquakes whose typical recurrence time is of the order of a century or so can be predicted from about four years in advance with a precision better than a year.” 

“这种不同，来源于标准的SOC〔‘自组成危险状态’〕模型中缺少了几何学内容。再引入几何学是实质性必要的。在带有分层断层结构的模型中115，我找到了对大地震的一定程度的可预测性。大部分典型重复发生间隔为百年左右的大地震，可以在四年前进行预测，精度优于一年之内。” 

“An important ingredient is the existence of logperiodic corrections to the power law increase of the seismic activity prior to large events, reflecting the hierarchical geometry, which help 'synchronizing' a better fit to the data. The associated discrete scale invariance and complex exponents are expected to occur in such out-of-equilibrium hierarchical systems with threshold dynamics16 .” 

“一个重要的因素是存在对大地震前地震活动性进行‘对数期间’修正，它反映着分层几何学，它可帮助进行更对应于数据的‘同步化’处理。伴随着的离散的标度标度的不变性和复杂的指数，预计在带有极限动力学的打破平衡的多层系统中产生123。” 

“Of course, extreme caution should be exercized but the theory is beautiful in its self-consistency and, even if probably largely inacurate, it may provide a useful guideline. Hierarchical geometry need not be introduced by hand as it emerges spontaneously from the self-consistent organization of the fault-earthquake process17 .” 

“当然，应当非常谨慎，但是该理论在它自己的一惯性方面非常漂亮，并且，即便可能有很大的不准确性，它可能提供有用的指导。多层几何学不需要人为的引入，因为它从断层地震过程自已一惯组织自然呈现出来124。”

A “密集dense 排列arrays of” continuous observation instruments

“密集排列的”连续观察仪器

Pascal Bernard pointed out58:

Pascal Bernard指出58∶ 

“From the observational point of view, differential tomography with active sources or multiplets, dense arrays of continuous GPS receivers and of borehole strain meters and tilt meters, and deep borehole observations in fault zones (for tracking the role of fluids directly), might be the key to success.” 

“从可观察的角度，带活化源或多重线的差分X线断层摄影术、密集排列的连续的GPS〔全球卫星定位系统〕接受仪，和钻洞应变仪和地倾仪，以及进行断层区域深孔钻洞观察〔以直接跟踪流体的作用〕，可能是导致成功的关键。”

Andrew Michael also pointed out76:

Andrew Michael亦指出76∶ 

“Level 3, the use of precursors, could lead to the prediction of either individual events or the behaviour of the population depending on how large an area the precursors cover. Given that years of effort have led to no widely accepted precursors, perhaps there are no valid earthquake precursors. Or have our efforts been too weak to find them? Although Ian Main asserts that the effort to find precursors has been enormous, it has used only a few per cent of the US earthquake research budget. This limited effort has allowed a wide variety of dense instrumentation to be installed in very few areas, and these areas have not yet experienced a large event1286,1387. Although the level of effort must be considered against other seismological and societal goals, it is impossible to rule out the existence of precursors on the basis of a lack of observations.” 

“第3级，采用前兆，可以导致预测个别的地震事件，或预测地震群体的行为，取决于这些前兆覆盖多大的区域。考虑到这么多年的努力没有导致任何普遍接受的前兆，有效的地震前兆或许就根本不存在。或者我们寻找它们的努力太弱？尽管Ian Main断言为寻找前兆所做出的努力是巨大的，它仅花费了美国地震研究预算的百分之几。这样有限的努力使广泛种类密集的仪器仅安装在很少几个区域，而且这些区域还没有经历一次大地震86 87。尽管所做出的努力的水平必须相对于其它地震学的和社会目标一并考虑，在不充分的观察基础上无法否定前兆有可能存在。”

Max Wyss also points out32:

Max Wyss亦指出32∶ 

“Very large earthquakes occur too infrequently to test hypotheses on how to predict them with the statistical rigor one would like (for example L. Knopoff's contribution to this debate ), and potential data sets for testing are further reduced by the need to separate different tectonic settings (see Z. Wu's contribution to this debate ). In addition, most earthquakes occur far from existing dense instrumentation networks, making it impossible to gather data pertinent to most hypotheses.” 

“特别大的地震很少发生，不足于对假说进行试验，即如何利用人们希望那样严格的统计数字〔如L. Knopoff对该辩论提交的论文描述的那样〕对地震进行预测；为不同板块的不同设置值〔参看Z. Wu对这次辩论提交的论文〕，使用于进行这种试验的潜在数据组进一步减少。此外，大部分地震又发生在远离现在密集布置的仪器网，更使研究者们无法收集与大部分假定有关的数据。”

Develop a sound physics-based theory of the precursory process that takes us away from simplistic models

对前兆过程发展一个将我们从简单模型引开的合理的物理学为基础的理论

Leon Knopoff pointed out53:

Leion Knopoff指出53∶ 

“It is now time to develop a sound physics-based theory of the precursory process that takes us away from simplistic models.” 

“现在已经到时间对前兆过程发展一个将我们从简单模型引开的合理的物理学为基础的理论。” 

“We have been guilty of jumping on bandwagons without asking the basic questions, "What is an earthquake? What determines its size, and why is it likely to occur where and when it does?" These are physics questions; they are not likely to be solved by statistically unsubstantiable means. We have so far been unsuccessful at prediction because laboratory and theoretical studies of the physics of deformation and fracture have been largely unsupported. The problem is not simple; however, that does not mean it is insoluble.” 

“我们自己对于问清基本的问题前就跳上乐队花车有责任∶‘什么是地震？是什么决定其大小，以及为什么它看来在哪里和什么时候发生？’这些都是一些物理学方面的问题；它们不象能够由统计学的非实质性手段来解决。我们在预测方面到目前为止不成功，因为未能获得变形和破裂的物理状况的实验室研究的和理论研究的支撑。问题并不简单；然而，那并不意味着它是不能解决的。”

On this issue, David Bowman & Charles Sammis also pointed out6:

对于该议题，David Bowman & Charles Sammis也指出6∶ 

“Although models of intermittent criticality might promise improved methods for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, we must be careful not to overstate their claims. Ideally, the scientific community and the public at large should approach these methods much the same way as weather prediction. It should be fully expected that forecasts will change through time, in much the same way that the five-day weather forecast on the evening news changes. However, this will require a fundamental shift in the way we as Earth scientists think about earthquakes. We must acknowledge that the Earth is a complicated nonlinear system and that even the best intermediate-term forecasts cannot hold up to the standards imposed by Geller in his comments earlier in this debate.” 

“尽管‘间歇性危险状态’的模型可能启示对‘中期地震预测’改进的方法，我们必须注意不要将它声称的东西强调过分。理想情况下，科学界和公众在很大程度上应当以天气预报同样的方式对待这些方法。应当充分期望预测将随时间发生变化，如同晚间新闻中对今后五天的天气所做的预报同样的方式而变化。然而，这将要求我们作为地球科学家对地震的想法做出根本性的改变。我们必须承认地球是一个复杂的非线性系统，而且，即便是最好的中期预测也无法实现Geller在这场辩论中早些时候所强加的标准。”

Monitor the build up of stress related to the development of earthquakes

监督与地震发展相关的应力增强

Stuart Crampin proposed :

Stuart Crampin提议125∶ 

“Earthquakes are extraordinarily varied and impossible to average. Perhaps the only feature of earthquakes that can be relied on is that they release a large amount of stress which, because rock is weak, has necessarily accumulated over a large volume of rock. If this build up of stress can be monitored then the time and magnitude of the earthquake when fracture criticality is reached can be subject to 'stress-forecast'. I suggest that we already know how to do this. The effects have been seen with hindsight for eight earthquakes worldwide, and the time and magnitude of an M=5 earthquake has been successfully stress-forecasted.” 

“地震格外的各式各样有所不同，无法取其平均状况。我们可以依赖的地震的唯一的特点是它们释放大量的应力；这种应力，由于岩石是薄弱的，须积累在巨量的岩石上。如果能够对于这种应力的增大进行监督的话，那么破裂达到危险程度时发生地震的时间和震级则取决于‘应力预测’。我认为我们已经知道如何做这到这一点。其效果已经由世界范围内的八次地震通过后见之明而看到，并且对一次M=5地震的时间和震级进行了成功的应力预测。” 

“Can we do anything? I believe we can, but not by examining the source. Rock is weak to shear stress, which means that the stress released by earthquakes has to accumulate over enormous volumes of rock. Perhaps hundreds of millions of cubic kilometres before an M=8 earthquake. There is mounting direct and indirect evidence1-4 that changes in seismic shear-wave splitting (seismic bi-refringence) can monitor the necessary build up of stress almost anywhere in the vast stressed rockmass before the earthquake can occur. ” 

“我们能否做什么？我相信我们可以，但并非通过天生震源。岩石对剪切应力来讲是薄弱的，这意味着地震释放出来的应力必须在极大量的岩石上积累起来。在发生一次M=9级地震前可能要在几亿立方公里的岩石上积累。有大量的直接和间接证据126 127 128 129，证明地震活动性剪切波爆裂中的变化〔地震的双折射〕可以用来监督地震能够发生前在极大应力作用下岩体中几乎任何地正在积累的应力。” 

“Most rocks in the crust contain stress-aligned fluid-saturated grain-boundary cracks and pores1126. These are the most compliant elements of the rockmass and their geometry is modified by the build up of stress2127,3128,5 . Variations in seismic shear-wave splitting reflect changes of crack geometry, and hence can monitor the build-up of stress before earthquakes2127 and the release of stress at the time of (or in one case shortly before) the earthquake. Such changes have been identified with hindsight before three earthquakes in USA, one in China3128,5130, and now routinely before four earthquakes in SW Iceland63 (Please see these references for further details of these studies).” 

“地壳中大部分岩石包含着应力—排列的流体—渗透的晶粒间界裂纹和孔隙126。这些是岩体中最适应的部分，且正在增长的应力改变其几何形状127 128 130。地震活动性剪切波爆裂中的变化反映裂纹几何形状的改变，从而可以用来监督地震前应力的增长127，以及地震发生时〔和一个例子中在地震即将发生前〕应力的释放。这样的变化通过后见之明已在美国三次地震前识别出来，也在中国的一个震例中识别出来128 130，并且现在在冰岛西南部陆续发生的四个震中识别出来3〔请参看这些文献以了解这些研究的细节〕。” 

“The interpretation of these changes in shear-wave splitting is that stress builds up until the rock reaches fracture criticality when the cracking is so extensive that there are through-going fractures (at the percolation threshold) and the earthquake occurs2127,63. The rate of increase of stress can be estimated by the changes in shear-wave splitting, and the level of fracture criticality from previous earthquakes. When the increasing stress reaches fracture criticality the earthquake occurs. Magnitude can be estimated from the inverse of the rate of stress increase63: for a given rate of stress input, if stress accumulates over a small volume the rate is faster but the final earthquake smaller, whereas if stress accumulates over a larger volume the rate is slower but the earthquake larger.” 

“对剪切波爆裂中这些变化的解释是，应力一直增长到岩石达到破裂危险状态，此时岩石中的裂纹已广泛发生使得通过性破裂〔在逾渗限度〕从而地震发生127 3。通过剪切波爆到中的变化，以及上一次地震造成的破裂危险状态的水平，可以预计应力的增长率。当增长的应力达到破裂危险状态，地震就发生。从应力增长率的倒转可以预计震级3∶对于一个给定的应力输入率，如果应力跨越小的体积快速增长，最终的地震将较小；如果应力跨越很大的体积较慢的增长，地震将较大。” 

“As of 17th March, 1999 one earthquake has been successfully stress forecast in real-time giving the time and magnitude of a M=5 earthquake in SW Iceland6. Non-specific stress-forecasts were issued to the Icelandic National Civil Defence Committee on the 27th and 29th October, 1998. The final time-magnitude window (a window is necessary because of uncertainties in estimates) on 10th November, 1998, was a M>=5 soon or, if stress continued to increase, a M>=6 before the end of February 1999. Three days later (13th November, 1999), there was a M=5 earthquake within 2 km of the centre of the three stations where changes in shear-wave splitting were observed. We claim this is a successful real-time stress-forecast, as anticipated from the behaviour noted with hindsight elsewhere. Shear-wave splitting does not indicate potential earthquake locations, but analysis of local seismicity by Ragnar Stefánsson correctly predicted the small fault on which the stress-forecast earthquake occurred. It appears that monitoring the build up of stress before earthquakes can forecast the time and magnitude of impending earthquakes.” 

“以1999年3月17日的地震为例，对一次地震实时进行了成功的应力预测，对冰岛西南部一次M=5级地震预测了时间和震级203。1998年10月27日和29日向冰岛民防委员会发布了非特定应力预测。，最终的时间—震级带〔给出一个带是必要的，因为预计中的未肯定因素〕为，1998年11月10日为M>=5级，如果很快发生；或者，若应力继续增长，在1999年2月底前将为M>=6。三天后〔即1999年11月13日〕，距三个监测站之中心2公里处发生了一次M=5级地震，在此观测到剪切波爆裂。我们声称这是一次成功的实时应力预测，如从其它处后见之明中注意到的应力变化特征那样。剪切波爆裂并不表示潜在的地震的位置，但Ragnar Stefansson对当地地震活动性的分析正确的预测应力预测的地震发生的小断层。看起来，对地震前增长的应力进行监督能够对临近的地震发生的时间和震级进行预测。” 

“The phenomena we are observing are not precursors. Apart from the decrease in stress at the time of the earthquake, the effects are independent of the earthquake source parameters. Shear-wave splitting monitors a more fundamental process, the effects of the build up of stress on the rockmass, which allows the estimation of the rate of increase and the time when fracture criticality is reached.” 

“我们正在观察的现象不是前兆。地震发生时应力有所下降之外，有关的效应与震源指标相独立。剪切波爆裂监督着一种更为基本的过程，即应力在岩体上的积累，使得可预计应力的增长率和在达到破裂危险状态的时间。” 

For reasons not fully understood, but probably to do with the underlying critical nature of the non-linear fluid-rock interactions4129,7 the effect of the stressed fluid-saturated microcracks on shear-waves is remarkably stable1126-3128,5129.” 

“由于目前尚未完全理解的原因，但是可能与下边的非线性的流体—岩石相互作用的危险性质有关129 131，加载应力的流体—渗透的微型裂纹对于剪切波的影响引人注目的稳定126 128 129。” 

“I suggest that monitoring the build up of stress is a third strategy for predicting earthquakes beyond the two - detecting precursors, and detailed modelling of earthquake physics - suggested by Dave Jackson. Like many features of shear-wave splitting, it appears to be comparatively stable, appears to have considerable accuracy in forecasting time and magnitude.” 

“我建议，对应力的增长进行监督可作为地震预测另外两种战略之外的第三种，另外两种战略为探测前兆，以及对地震进行详细的物理学模拟，如Dave Jackson建议的那样。如同剪切波爆裂的许多特点一样，它看来相当稳定，并看来在预测时间和量级方面有相当的精确度。”

Commenting on above views, Didier Sornette pointed out14:

对上述观点表达看法，Didier Sornette指出14∶ 

“As mentioned by Bak in this debate, the SOC hypothesis has been suggested, on the one hand, on the basis of the observation of power law distributions, such as the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquakes and the fault length distribution, and of the fractal geometry of sets of earthquake epicenters and of fault patterns, and on the other hand on the study of highly simplified models with somewhat similar scale-invariant properties.”

“如同Bak在这场辩论中已提到的那样，一方面，在对动力法则分布进行观测的基础上，如用于地震和断层长度分布的Gutenberg-Richter定律，以及对震中的破裂几何学内容的观测和对断层图案的观测，以及另一方面对带有某种程度类似标度不变性质高度简单的模型的观测基础上，提出了SOC〔‘自组成危险性’〕假说。” 

“The most interesting aspect of SOC is its prediction that the stress field should exhibit long-range spatial correlations as well as important amplitude fluctuations. The exact solution of simple SOC models6 has shown that the spatial correlation of the stress-stress fluctuations around the average stress is long range and decays as a power law with distance.” 

“SOC的最有意思的方面，是它预测出应力场应当显示长范围空间的相关性，以及重要的振幅波动。简单SOC模型的确切方案132已表明在平均应力附近的应力—应力波动是长范围的，并依照动力法则随距离而衰减。” 

“Such models suggest that the stress fluctuations not only reflect but also 组成constitute an active and essential component of the organizing principle leading to SOC. It is an intriguing possibility whether the observed increase of long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to a strong earthquake7 ,839 may be a signature of increasing long-range correlations. This theoretical framework supports the view developed by Crampin in this debate that stress monitoring on large scale may be a good strategy.” 

“这样的模型建议应力的波动不仅反映而且组成导致SOC组织原则的活跃的组成部分。引起兴趣的一种可能性是，一次强震前所观察到的长范围间歇性地震活动133 39，是否是继续增加的长范围相互关系的特征之一。这种理论框架对Crampin在这场辩论中提出的观点给予支持，即在大的范围上对应力进行监督可能是一种好的战略。”

Monitor and analyze “the evolution of strain fields in space and time”

监督和分析“应变场在空间和时间上的演变”

Christpher Scholz proposed3:

Christpher Scholz提议3∶ 

“What, then, should we do about short-term earthquake prediction? Should we declare it impossible and banish it from our minds? I think not: there is much yet to be learned about earthquake physics, and rapid progress is being made, particularly in the applications of the rate/state variable-friction laws to the problem1210. Until now we have been working in the dark, with the only observables being the earthquakes themselves.” 

“那么，我们应当对短期地震预测怎么办？我们是否应当宣布它是不可能的，并将它从我们的思维中排除掉？我想不应当∶在地震物理学方面还有那么多需要了解，快速的进展也正在实现，特别在对地震问题应用速率／状态变量—摩擦规律方面10。直到现在我们一直在黑暗中工作，唯一的观察对象仅是地震本身。” 

“Dense permanent global positioning system (GPS) networks are presently being installed in California and Japan and elsewhere that, together with satellite radar interferometry, will allow us to view for the first time the evolution of strain fields in space and time. Who knows what might turn up? Then there are the curious 'precursory' phenomena, which continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time. What could their mechanism be?” 

“密集的地球卫星定位系统〔GPS〕网目前正在加利福尼亚、日本和其它地方安装，再加上卫星雷达干涉测量系统，将第一次使我们得以看到应变场在空间和时间上的演变。谁知道可能发现什么？此外，还有不时偶而观察到的古怪的‘前兆’现象。它们的机制到底如何？”

“Earthquakes are different in their source process and tectonic environment, can be divided into some classes, and a certain precursor will be valid only for a certain class of earthquakes.”

“地震从其震源过程和板块环境来讲各不相同，可以分类为某些类别，某种前兆将仅对某种地震类别有效。”

Zhong-liang Wu pointed out92:

Zhong-liang Wu指出92∶ 

“Various studies have been carried out to measure prediction efficiency, to formulate hypothesis tests, and to verify prediction schemes (for example refs 1-581 82 ). Up to now, however, the 'game rules' have not paid enough attention to an important problem, specifically that earthquakes are different from one another. In the statistical test, it often happens that all earthquakes within a magnitude-space-time range are treated as the same, which has no sound geophysical basis.” 

“对测量预测效率进行过不同的研究，以便构成对假说的测试，以及用来对不同的预测计划进行验证〔例如文献81 82 134 135 136〕。然而，到目前为止，‘游戏规则’并没有对一个重要问题给予足够的注意，具体来讲即地震各不相同。在统计学试验中，往往对一定震级—空间—时间范围的所有地震同样对待，这样做并无合理的地球物理基础。” 

“The reason for making this argument is that earthquakes are different in their source process and tectonic environment, and can be divided into some classes. A certain precursor will be valid only for a certain class of earthquakes. For example, if tidal triggering is regarded as a potential earthquake precursor, then caution must be taken that such a triggering mechanism is only significant for the earthquakes of normal-fault type. In contrast, for the dip-thrusting and strike-slip earthquakes, such a triggering effect is not significant6 .” 

“对此提出争论的理由是，地震从其震源过程和板块环境来讲各不相同，并可以分类为某些类别。一种前兆将仅对某种类别地震有效。例如，如果潮汐触发被认为是一种潜在的地震前兆，那么应当慎重，这样的触发机制仅对正常断层类型地震有意义。与此相反，对于向下--挤压的撞击--滑动类型地震来说，这样一种触发影响没有意义137。 

“The classification of earthquakes by the physics of their seismic source is far from complete, and more detailed studies on the source process of earthquakes and seismogenesis are needed. Furthermore, we do not know the exact role of slow earthquakes7 ,8 and aseismic slip9 in the dynamics of earthquakes. In the future, seismologists may provide an earthquake catalogue classifying of earthquake sources for the statistical test of earthquake prediction schemes.” 

“对地震由它们的震源的物理学内容进行分类远没有完成，需要对地震的震源过和地震成因进行更详尽的研究。此外，我们还不知道缓慢地震的确切作用138 139，以及地震动力学中耐震滑动的作用140。将来，地震学家或许将提出对震源进行分类的地震目录，用以对地震预测计划进行统计学试验。” 

“Although at present we do not have such a catalogue, it is clear that the assumption that all earthquakes are the same will lead to a harsh 'game rule' in evaluating the performance of an earthquake prediction scheme.” 

“尽管我们目前尚没有这样一个目录，很清楚的是，假定所有的地震都一样将导致在评价一个地震预测计划时采用过于粗略的‘游戏规则’。”

Further analysis of “successful predictions, false-alarms, and failures-to-predict”

对“成功的预测、虚报和漏报”应进行进一步分析

Zhong-liang Wu pointed out92:

Zhong-liang Wu指出92∶ 

“There are three general cases associated with earthquake prediction: successful predictions, false-alarms, and failures-to-predict. A 'game rule' is mainly a comparison of the performance of a prediction approach with that of random prediction, according to the normal rate of seismicity3134,4135.” 

“地震预测伴随着三种一般的情况∶成功的预测、虚报，以及漏报。‘游戏规则’主要是，依据地震活动性的正常率，对预测的方法与随意的预测进行性能方面的比较134 135。 

“If earthquakes can be classified into different categories, then false-alarms and failures-to-predict have a different physical significance. For any specific precursor, failure-to-predict some earthquakes is inevitable because the precursor under consideration is not valid for all classes of earthquakes. In the study of potential precusors, therefore, an appropriate research strategy is to depress the false-alarms and to tolerate the failures-to-predict*.” 

“如果可以将地震分类为不同的类别，那么虚报和漏报就具有不同的物理学意义。对任何特定的前兆，对某些地震漏报是不可避免的，因为考虑中的前兆并非对所有类别地震均有效。因而，在研究潜在的前兆时，一种适当的研究战略为对虚报进行压抑，而对漏报予以容忍。”

It is still necessary to search and discover new earthquake precursors

寻找和发现新的地震前兆仍然必要

Zhong-liang Wu pointed out92:

Zhong-liang Wu指出92∶ 

“Such a research strategy does not conflict with the ethics of seismological study. To tolerate the failures-to-predict does not mean that seismologists are irresponsible. Comparing the study of earthquake prediction to the study of medicine, it is unreasonable to require a technique or instrument to be able to diagnose all diseases. Similarly, it is not rational to require that an earthquake precursor is valid for all kinds of earthquakes. A decrease in failures-to-predict can be achieved by discovering new precursors which are valid for other kinds of earthquake.” 

“这样一种研究战略在地震学研究中并不与道德规范形成矛盾。对虚报予以容忍并非意味着地震学家不负责任。将地震预测的研究与医药研究进行比较时，要求一种技术或仪器能够诊断所有的病症是不合理的。类似道理，要求一种地震前兆对所有种类地震有效也不合理。通过发现对其它类型地震有效的新的前兆将减少虚报。”

Development of an earthquake prediction Intelligence Expert software package

开发地震预测智能专家软件系统

By raising a reverse question, Robert J. Geller proposed such a system as follows :

以一种逆向反问的方式，Robert J. Geller对这样一种系统提议如下141∶ 

“Prediction proponents should, but do not, provide a 'predictor in the box' software package, with all parameters fixed. We could then input any data of the type considered by the method being tested (for example seismicity, geoelectrical, geodetic, etc.), using either real-time data or recorded data for regions other than that used to develop the algorithm. The software package would then generate predictions that could be tested against an intelligent null hypothesis such as the automatic alarm strategy194.” 

“预测的支持者应当，但是没有，提供一种‘匣子内预言者’软件包，其中设定所有的指标。我们这样可以将各种方法正在进行试验所有类型数据输入进去〔如地震活动性的、地电的、测地学的，等〕，采用无论实时数据或用来开发运算法则以外的对有关区域记录到的数据。该软件包将产生预测，并相对于无智能假说，如自动报警战略，进行试验94。

Adopt the “automatic alarm strategy ... as the benchmark for testing other proposed prediction methods”

采纳一种“自动报警战略……作为对提议的其它预测方法进行试验的基准”

Also in a reverse and negative way, Robert J. Geller proposed7:

依旧以一种逆向的和负面方式，Robert J. Geller提议7∶ 

“The probability of earthquake occurrence is much larger than usual immediately after an earthquake occurs, decaying with time as a power law3 . This is the basis for the 'automatic alarm' prediction strategy494: issue an alarm automatically after every earthquake above a certain size, on the chance that it might be a foreshock of a larger earthquake.” 

“一次地震后立即再发生一次地震的概率比通常时要大很多，并而后依照动力法则随时间而衰减142。这就是‘自动报警’预测战略的基础94: 在每次超过一定规模的地震后自动报警，以便碰运气它可能是更大的地震的一次前震。” 

“The exact success and alarm rates of the automatic alarm strategy will depend on the choice of windows, but there will probably be hundreds of false alarms for every success, and on the order of half the significant earthquakes will probably be missed. Thus, as emphasized by its proposer494, this strategy is not in general sufficiently reliable and accurate to justify issuing public alarms. (Probabilistic prediction of aftershocks -- see discussion by Michael -- may be an exception where public alarms are justifiable.) Note that the 'automatic alarm' strategy is a scientifically valid method for making forecasts in Main's category 2 (time-dependent hazard), although its actual utility in hazard mitigation is unclear.” 

“自动报警战略的确切成功和报警率取决于所选择的允差带宽，但是对于每次成功可能会有数百次虚报，且大约一半重要地震可能也会漏报。因此，如其提议者强调的那样94，这种战略总的来说不够可靠和不够精确作为向公众发布报警的依据。〔对余震的或然率预测 -- 请参看Michael在辩论中的讨论 – 可能是一种例外，这种情况发布报警有依据〕应注意到在Main提出的类别2中〔依赖于时间的危险〕，‘自动报警’战略是一种进行预测的科学有效方法，虽然它在风险平静时的应用不清楚。” 

“The automatic alarm strategy can be implemented at essentially no cost, as all we need are the hypocentral data from a seismic network. No measurements of electromagnetic signals, radio-isotope levels in well water, or any of the other phenomena that are sometimes claimed to be earthquake precursors are required. Although the automatic alarm strategy falls far short of the accuracy and reliability required for issuing public alarms, it achieves a significant probability gain over predictions issued completely at random. The automatic alarm strategy should be adopted as the benchmark for testing other proposed prediction methods. Unless and until a proposed method has been shown to outperform the automatic alarm strategy (none has ever been shown to do so), it does not warrant intensive investigation.” 

“自动报警战略可以在几乎没有费用的条件下实施，我们只需要地震监测网提供的震源数据。不需要测量电磁信号、井中的放射性同位素水平，或者有时被声称为地震前兆的其它现象。尽管自动报警战略离向公众发布报警所需的精确性和可靠性差的很远，与完全随意的预测相比，它具有显著的概率优势。自动报警战略亦可采纳作为测试其它所提议的预测方法的基准。除非和直到所提议的方法显示出超越自动报警战略的性能〔没有一个有这种显示〕，不配对它从事深入的调查研究。”

The “importance of objective statistical testing in resolving the prediction debate. Researchers looking for precursors could greatly benefit from the experience of pharmaceutical research, where new drugs are routinely evaluated by randomized double-blind testing using placebos”

“有目标的统计学试验对于解决预测方面辩论的重要性。寻找前兆的研究者们可以从医学研究的经验中受益，该领域中通过随机采用安慰剂的双盲试验法对新药进行评估”

Robert J. Geller suggested7:

Robert J. Geller建议7∶ 

“It is regrettable that the other contributors to the first two weeks of this debate have not sufficiently acknowledged the importance of objective statistical testing in resolving the prediction debate. Researchers looking for precursors could greatly benefit from the experience of pharmaceutical research, where new drugs are routinely evaluated by randomized double-blind testing using placebos791.” 

“遗憾的是，这场辩论头两个星期中提交文章的研究者们，并没有足够认识到有目标的统计学试验对于解决预测方面辩论的重要性。寻找前兆的研究者们可以从医学研究的经验中受益，该领域中通过随机采用安慰剂的双盲试验法对新药进行评估91。”

The “full potential of artificial /computational intelligence, statistical physics, super-computer modelling, large scale monitoring of a full spectrum of physical measurements, coupled together with more traditional seismological and geological approaches” has not been fully exploited.

“人工／计算机化智能、统计物理学、超大计算机模拟计划、在大范围内进行全频谱物理测量监测，伴随着更传统的地震学和地质学方法方面的潜力”尚没有进行充分的开拓。

Following the Conclusion Remarks by Ian Main, Nature accepted a late arrival email contribution14 from Didier Sornette which stressed the following:

在Ian Main发表总结看法后，《自然》杂志接受了Didier Sornette迟到的发去的论文14，其中强调如下∶ 

“Predicting earthquakes requires an understanding of the underlying physics, which calls for novel multidisciplinary approaches at a level never yet undertaken. Notwithstanding past efforts in several countries in the last decades, I fail to see that the scientific community has used the full potential of artificial/computational intelligence, statistical physics, super-computer modelling, large scale monitoring of a full spectrum of physical measurements, coupled together with more traditional seismological and geological approaches to make a dent in the earthquake problem. What we have learned is that past failures in earthquake prediction reflect the biased view that it was a simple problem.” 

“地震预测要求对作为其基础的物理内容的理解，这号召进行到目前尚未进行过的高水平的多学科方法的研究。尽管许多国家过去几十年进行的努力，我未能看到科学界对人工／计算机化智能、统计物理学、超大计算机模拟计划、在大范围内进行全频谱物理测量监测，伴随着更传统的地震学和地质学方法方面的潜力进行充分的开拓。从过去的地震预测的失败中，我们了解到它反映了过去误认为这是一个简单问题的片面看法。”

“We need fundamentally new approaches for understanding what are earthquakes”, “not only of the source problem but of the full seismic cycles”.

“我们需要理解什么是地震的基本上新的研究方法”，“不仅对震源问题，而且对整个地震活动循环”。

Following the above remarks, Didier Sornette continued to point out14:

继上述看法后，Didier Sornette进一步指出14∶ 

“Similarly, we need fundamentally new approaches for understanding what are earthquakes, but hopefully less time might be needed to understand what is the 'alchemy of earthquakes', simply because we are so much better armed and science is progressing so much faster than ever before. I consider the understanding of earthquakes to be a requisite to the assessment of prediction potentials for two reasons. Simple 'black box' pattern recognition techniques have been tried repeatedly and have shown limited success, probably in part due to the poor quality and scarcity of the data. A fundamental understanding of earthquakes, not only of the source problem but of the full seismic cycles, is thus called for.” 

“与此类似，我们需要理解什么是地震的基本性新的研究方法，但是，希望花在理解什么是‘地震的炼金术’上仅花费较少的时间，简单因为我们现在的科学装备好的多，而且科学比以前任何时代都进展的快的多。我考虑，对于评估预测的潜力来说，对地震的理解由于两个原因必不可少。简单的‘黑匣子’果然识别技术已经重复试验过多次，但仅显示有限的成功，或许部分由于数据的质量差以及不足。对地震的基本性理解的要求，不仅是对震源问题，而且对整个地震活动循环”。 

“Only such an understanding could lead us to a quantitative assessment of the potentials and limitations of earthquake prediction, as chaos and dynamical system theory have helped in understanding (some of) the limits of weather forecasting. We are very far behind meteorology for two reasons: 1.

we still have very limited precise quantitative measurements of the many parameters involved. 2.

the physical phenomena underlying earthquakes are much more intricate and interwoven and we do not have a fundamental Navier-Stokes equation for the crust organization.” 

“只有这样的理解才能引导我们对地震预测的潜力和限制进行量化的评估，如同混沌和动态系统理论曾帮助理解气象预测的〔某些〕限制。由于两项原因我们目前远远落后于气象学∶ 1、

我们目前仍然对所涉及的许多指标仅有非常有限的精确性的量化测量。 2、

地震下边的物理学现象更加错综复杂交织在一起，而我们对地壳的组成仍没有一个基本性的Navier-Stokes方程式。” 

“It is thus too early to state anything conclusive about the fundamental limitation of earthquake prediction.” 

“因此，对地震预测的基础性限制做出任何结论，目前实在太早。”

Further studies are required on “The interplay between mechanical deformation, activated chemical transformation and rupture”, this “opens new windows to look at earthquakes, beyond the (reductionist) mechanical paradigm”.

对“机械变形之间的相互影响，活化的化学转化和破裂”需要进行进一步的研究，这将“对地震的看法打开新的窗口，超越〔还原论者〕的机械范例”

In the same paper, Didier Sornette also point out14:

在同一篇论文中，Didier Sornette还指出14∶ 

“As recalled by Crampin in this debate, earthquakes depend on many geological and physical conditions. In particular, there is a lot of direct and indirect evidence for the prominent role of water, both mechanically (pore pressure) and chemically (recrystallization, particle effects, texture) and their probable interplay417,5 . There is growing recognition that mineral structures can form and deform at much milder pressures and temperatures than their pure equilibrium phase diagram would suggest, when in contact with water or in the presence of anisotropic strain and stress (ref. 5143 and references therein). ” 

“如同由Crampin在这场辩论中提醒的那样，地震取决于许多地质的和物理条件。具体讲，有许多直接的和间接的证据说明水的突出作用，既包括机械的〔孔隙压力〕，也包括化学的〔重新结晶、颗粒的影响、岩石纹理〕，以及它们的相互作用17 143。正在增长这样的认识，矿物组织，在与水接触时，或在存在着各向异性应变和应力条件下，能够在它们纯净的平衡相图所建议的更温和的压力和温度下形成和变形〔参看文献143〕。” 

“As an example, I have recently proposed5231 that water in the presence of finite localized strain within fault gouges may lead to the modification of mineral textures, involving dynamic recrystallization and maybe phase transformations of stable minerals into metastable polymorphs of higher free energy density. The interplay between mechanical deformation, activated chemical transformation and rupture opens new windows to look at earthquakes, beyond the (reductionist) mechanical paradigm.” 

“例如，我最近曾提议，水在断层的沟中以限定于当地应变的状态存在时，可导致对矿物纹理进行改变，同时涉及动态的再结晶过程，以及或许稳定矿物向化亚稳的更高无能量密度的惰形体的相变。机械变形、活性化学相变和破裂，打开了如何看地震的新的窗户，超越〔还原论者〕的机械范例。”

“More frequent retreat-meetings with attendance by experts from a wide range of fields”

“由广泛领域专家参加的更经常的交换意见会议”

Max Wyss stressed32:

Max Wyss强调32∶ 

“Separation of sub-disciplines” 

“分学科的分离” 

“Geller seems preoccupied by separation of sub-disciplines. Most researchers and educators try to combat the barriers that constantly appear between sub-disciplines but it is difficult to keep the channels of communication open. Of course the problem of earthquake prediction is intimately intertwined with those of the seismic source processes, of tectonics and self organized criticality. In addition, laboratory experiments on rock fracture, computer simulation of faulting, crustal deformation measurements and modelling, as well as studies of ground water properties are all important for, and applicable to, problems in prediction research.” 

“Geller看来全神贯注于分学科的分离。大部分研究者和教育者试图抗击总是出现在不同学科之间的屏障，但是在保持通讯渠道开通方面存在着困难。地震预测问题当然与地震的那些板块和自组成危险状态及其震源过程密切地缠绕在一起。此外，对岩石破裂的实验室实验、对断层的计算机模拟，对地壳变形的测量和数字化模型，以及对地下水性质的研究，均对于地震预测研究是重要的和可应用的。” 

“It would be beneficial, if, as Geller suggests, an audience of such wide expertise were in one room at a conference. For one thing Geller himself would then not make such elementary mistakes as to confuse increased seismic moment release with "more small earthquakes." However, as we all know, wide participation in specialist lectures at conferences is unrealistic. People cannot be forced to attend. To foster interactions between sub-disciplines, one must make the special effort of interdisciplinary retreat-meetings.” 

“如果，如Geller所建议的那样，具有如此广泛经验的出席者在一个房间里出席一次会议将很有益。有一点很清楚，如果能够这样，Geller自己就不会犯那样低级的错误，把增加地震活动的瞬间释放与‘与更多的小地震’混为一谈。然而，如同我们知道的那样，广泛不同领域学者在一个会议中做专家讲演是不现实的。不能迫使人们出席。为了鼓励分学科之间的交流作用，必须对各学科间的交流讨论会做特别的努力。” 

“Thus, I disagree with Geller when he sees a need for organizational changes. The boundaries of sub-disciplines establish themselves and there is no particular evil associated with them. However, I agree that more frequent retreat-meetings with attendance by experts from a wide range of fields is needed to advance earthquake prediction research..” 

“因此，当Geller看到组织变化方面改变时，我不同他。分学科之间的界线确立他们自己，没有什么与此有关的有害的东西。然而，我同意由广泛领域专家参加的更经常的交流讨论会对于地震预测的进展来说有必要。”

Funding earthquake prediction research at an adequate level and to improve quality of research

对地震预测研究提供足够水平的经费来改进研究的质量

Max Wyss pointed out32:

Max Wyss指出32∶ 

“Thus, our weapons in the struggle for high quality work are threefold:

1. Funding the research at an adequate level such that the most capable scientists are attracted to this field; such that a researcher has the time to penetrate to the greatest depth allowed by a data set; and such that the necessary high quality data are available.

2. Rigorous peer review of research proposals.

3. Stringent reviews of journal articles. 

“因此，我们对高质量工作的斗争武器是三重的∶

1、 对该项研究提供足够水平的经费，以便将能力最强的科学家吸引到该领域中；使研究者有时间深入到有关数据允许的最大深度；并使必要的高质量的数据能够获得。

2、 对研究建议书进行严格的评论和审查。

3、 对杂志上发表论文进行严厉的审查。” 

“We should use all of these tools to foster high quality earthquake prediction research.” 

“我们应当利用所有这些工具来培育高质量的地震预测研究。”

(End of complete paper)

〔全文完〕

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